Abstract
Despite the fact that brucellosis has been eradicated in many countries, it is still present in various geographical areas and causes considerable economic and health damages. In Campania, the infection is present in the provinces of Salerno and Caserta, where in the latter province a drastic increase in the prevalence and incidence of infection in buffalo has been observed in the last years. Campania is the area with the highest concentration of buffalo farms in Italy. About 80% of Campania’s buffalo population is present in Caserta. This zootechnical activity is characterized by the presence of over 1400 farms and about 300000 heads, occupying a prominent role in the agricultural production system and representing an important component of the regional economy as part of buffalo mozzarella from Campania DOP. The results of official controls carried out from 2015 to 2020 in the buffalo farms of the Caserta Province were analysed. The data was extracted from the National Veterinary Information Systems and from the Laboratory Management System of the Experimental Zooprophylactic Institute of Southern Italy. The statistical analysis was carried out through the software R version 4.1.0. The dataset consists of 4,583 serologically controls in buffalo farms, of which 353 were positive over the six years considered. The association (Chi Square and Wilcoxon Tests) between a series of covariates was examined and the response variable “presence / absence” of the disease in the company was evaluated. A mixed effects logistic regression model was carried out to evaluate the contribution of possible factors over time and quantify the risks for the development of the disease. The infection is concentrated in the geographic areas with the highest density of animals and farms for Km2. More than 50% of the positive farms were repeatedly positive over time. From the analysis of the model, it emerged that the presence of abortions, a higher number of animal movements and herds density are significantly associated with the detection of infection in herds. The presence of infection’s geographic clusters suggests the presence of environmental factors that may have facilitated the spread of brucellosis between neighbouring farms.
